Dare we Dream of Spring? Happy Imbolc (Groundhog Day) 2011

Update 2011-02-02: Flatbush Fluffy didn't see his shadow this morning. He did see his reflection in the sheet of ice that covers everything. Not sure what that means.

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The snow in the backyard - undisturbed by shoveling, snowblowers, drifts, and pedestrian traffic, save for a few small, furry quadrupeds - is above my knees, about two feet. As I write this on the eve of the last day of January 2011, there is yet another Winter Storm Watch in effect, the billionth this Winter.

For the first day of February, the National Weather Service predicts snow, snow and sleet, freezing rain, sleet and snow, ice, freezing rain, snow and sleet, snow, then freezing rain, in that order. That's just Tuesday. It continues into Wednesday, Groundhog Day, with much the same result. The sole consolation is that come Imbolc morn, Flatbush Fluffy, the resident Marmota monax, will not see his shadow. Dare we dream of Spring?



The groundhog, Marmota monax, also known as a woodchuck, groundhog, or whistlepig, is the largest species of marmot in the world.

Happy Imbolc (Groundhog Day) 2010

Update, 2010-02-02: Swing, and a miss. It's overcast this morning. The sun is up, and visible over the rooftops, but no shadows. Spring will arrive on time! (Oh, and my neighbor's Snowdrops are up, if not yet in bloom.)

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If the National Weather Service forecast for tomorrow morning is correct on this point, the sky will be clear for dawn in Flatbush. Flatbush Fluffy, the resident Marmota monax, will see his shadow, promising six more weeks of Winter.

Winter Storm Warning

Update 2009-03-02 08:00: Just back from shoveling a few hundred square feet of steps, walkway and sidewalk. Snow is 5" deep on the sidewalk, 6-6.5" deep on the ground, drifting higher. Snow is still falling, and predictions are for another 2-4" during the day on top of what we already have from last night.

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The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the New York City tri-state area from 6pm tonight through 6pm Monday evening. A "major snowstorm" will drop 6 to 14 inches of snow, depending on location, with wind gusts up to 35 MPH.

The point forecast for Flatbush is projecting accumulations of over 13" and steady winds of over 25 MPH.

Alternate side parking rules are suspended city-wide to facilitate snow removal.

Update 2009-03-02: All NYC public schools are closed, the first time in five years.

Links

Snow Along the East Coast, NASA Earth Observatory, 2009-03-03

Hazards: Winter Weather, NYC OEM

Brooklyn Last Frost Date and Spring Planting Calendar

1. Go to the Spring Planting Calendar setup by Skippy's Vegetable Garden
2. Enter the date 04/21/2009 as the "Last Spring Frost" date for Brooklyn.
3. Click the [Generate ...] button.
4. See how late you already are!

The hardest part of figuring out when to start seeds or set out plants is knowing when the "last frost date" is for your location. NOAA has a set of charts of frost and freeze dates on their Web site, one for each state, with a set of date for each of their measuring stations. Here's the explanation NOAA provides:

This product contains station freeze/frost probability tables for each state. Given are the dates of probable first and last occurrence ... and the probability of experiencing a given temperature, or less ... probabilities are given for three temperatures (36, 32, and 28 °f) at three probability levels (10, 50, and 90 percent).

The chart for New York state [PDF] lists four stations in New York City, including one on Avenue V in Brooklyn. Let's look at the Spring-relevant subsection of the New York state table for NOAA's Brooklyn station:

Threshold (F)	90%	50%	10%
36	Apr01	Apr11	Apr21
32	Mar21	Apr01	Apr13
28	Mar10	Mar24	Apr07

To get the "last frost date" for Brooklyn, I chose the most conservative - the safest - values: the highest of the three temperatures, 36F, and the 10% probability threshold. The date given is April 21. That means that there's only a 10% chance that the temperature will drop to 36F or lower on or after April 21, so that's the date I used for "Last Spring Frost" in the Spring Planting Calendar.

Links

Spring Planting Calendar Skippy's Vegetable Garden NOAA charts of frost and freeze dates

Happy Imbolc (Groundhog Day) 2009!

The sun has not yet risen this morning, but the sky is clear as dawn lightens to day. It's likely that "Flatbush Fluffy", the resident Marmota monax, will see his shadow today, if only he would get out of bed.



It's a very different Imbolc than last year. Yesterday and today are the first days since December that I remember we had nighttime temperatures above freezing, which is a deep freeze for us. Last year was the first NYC January without snow in 75 years. This Winter we've been hit with multiple snow storms. I think we're up to five. Also unlike this time last year, there's been no sign of my Spring early warning system: snowdrops and crocuses. So I guess we really are in for a few more weeks of Winter.

Winter Wonderland

The south side of Albemarle Road looking east from Rugby Road around 10am this morning.


After shoveling and de-icing the steps and sidewalk this morning, I walked over to the landmarked Prospect Park South Historic District for the photo op. I'm glad I did. I was rewarded with these beautiful, snowy images.

I concentrated on Albemarle Road as part of my research into the history of its design and documentation of the current landscape for my Urban Garden Design class at the Brooklyn Botanic Garden. Somebody has to do it.

Looking toward the northwest corner of Albemarle and Rugby Roads


Albemarle Road, South side, looking west from Buckingham Road. Behind the chain link fence on the left lies the Flatbush CommUNITY Garden.

Details

The border of Prospect Park South is delineated by these brick posts surmounted with concrete planters. The street labels have been replaced at least once, having been weathered to near-illegibility from a century of exposure. The monogram is "PPS": Prospect Park South.


Some of Brooklyn's famous parrots were flocked high up in the top of this snowy American Elm tree on Albemarle Road. There are three parrots in this cropped image. If I were to produce an invasive species calendar, this would be a good image for it.


Oak Leaves


Holly, Flatbush Malls, Albemarle Road


Branches, Flatbush Malls, Albemarle Road


Lantern, 131 Buckingham Road, "The Japanese House"

Houses

1203 Albemarle Road


1305 Albemarle Road


1406 Albemarle Road / 135 Rugby Road, Prospect Park South, Flatbush, Brooklyn



1505 Albemarle Road


1510 Albemarle Road


143 Buckingham Road


131 Buckingham Road

Related Content

Flickr photo set

Winter Weather Advisory

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory to replace the earlier Winter Storm Watch. The predicted amount of snow has been reduced, but freezing rain is now predicted for much of the area, including Brooklyn.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 8 AM EST SUNDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
FALL INTO TONIGHT...THEN MIX WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
WINTRY MIX ENDS SUNDAY MORNING.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH LOWER AMOUNTS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE ATLANTIC
WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN. SOME ICING IS EXPECTED AS WELL LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Winter Storm Watch this Weekend

Update 2009.01.10: Changed to a Winter Weather Advisory

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Likely to put a damper on this weekend's Mulchfest activities, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for the NYC Metropolitan area. Snow will be greater the more north you are, but we'll still have enough to shovel here in Brooklyn:

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CONNECTICUT...
AND FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS NEW YORK CITY...WESTCHESTER COUNTY
AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

Update: I chatted with "Prospect Park" on Facebook and confirmed that they're still on for tomorrow:

FG: Mulchfest still on despite winter storm watch?
PP: so far, yes! if the weather turns extreme and they do have to scale back the event, we will post on our homepage, www.prospectpark.org. Seems unlikely though.
FG: Thanks! I plan to dress for the weather and hope to be there. At Park Circle location

Related Content

Snow

Happy Holidays

The MTA thwarted our plans to attend a concert of a women's choir this evening. So Blog Widow and I turned back and walked around our neighborhood, taking in the snow-beings and holiday lights.

Enjoy this slideshow of my Flickr set of photos from the evening. For best viewing, click the play button, then click the icon with four arrows in the lower-right to view it full-screen on a black background.

Related Content

Flickr set

Winter Storm Watch

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Brooklyn and the south shore of Long Island for tomorrow, with the possibility of 6 or more inches of snow:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON [New York] HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...AND COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES.

Gardening by Satellite

Here in Brooklyn, at the end of last week and into the weekend, we got drenched with a couple days of rain. Fellow gardeners in Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, I sympathize.

In this image, snow is red and orange, while liquid water is black. By the time this image was taken [On December 13], the top layer of ice was undoubtedly starting to melt, and the resulting watery ice ranges from dark red to black. The icy region extends over parts of Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire ... The normally green-blue tone of plant-covered land is nearly black throughout most of New Hampshire, the state most severely affected by the storm.
- New England Ice Storm, NASA Earth Observatory

If you've blogged about the ice storm in your area, give us a link!

Links

New England Ice Storm, NASA Earth Observatory

The following Garden Bloggers reported on the ice storm where they are.
Common Weeder, Heath, Massachusetts
Garden Path, Scarborough, Maine
The Vermont Gardener, Marshfield, Vermont

One Year Ago

Trees snapped in half on Marlborough Road at Albemarle Road, Prospect Park South, on August 8, 2007. This area incurred the most dramatic damage in Flatbush, with scores of trees downed on the street and private property.


The Brooklyn Tornado of 2007 struck one year ago today.

1510 Albemarle Road

I featured this house in Conservatory Envy in September 2006. I took this shot in November 2006.


The tree on the right was a casualty of the tornado.


Here's how it looked from across the street in November 2006.


And after the tornado.

Related Content

Tornado Damage in Prospect Park South, Caton Park and Beverley Square West, August 8, 2007
Tornado Damage, Victorian Flatbush, August 8, 2007 (Flickr photo set)

Flash Flood Watch for NYC through tomorrow morning

Just in from the NYC Office of Emergency Management (OEM):

JULY 23, 2008 - FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NYC

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch beginning Wednesday
evening, July 23. The Flash Flood Watch is expected to stay in effect until Thursday
evening, July 24. Rainfall totals may reach six inches in New York City, with
localized flooding possible.

New Yorkers should exercise caution, as heavy rain may knock down trees and power
lines, and may create hazardous driving conditions. People should avoid walking or
driving through moving water, as six inches of fast-moving water can knock people
off their feet; two feet will cause most vehicles to float.

Related Posts

Floods

Links

NYC Hazards: Flash Flooding, NYC Office of Emergency Management (OEM)

Another Flood Watch

Not so much rain expected as earlier this week, but the National Weather Service has issued another flood watch starting tonight into tomorrow. Most of the rain will fall on Saturday, with accumulations between 1 and 2 inches during the day.

Wear your rain gear for Making Brooklyn Bloom tomorrow!

Weather Alert: Flood Watch Tonight and Tomorrow

Brooklyn Category 1-4 Coastal Storm Impact Zones. Yellow areas are most at risk from this storm, especially during high tide tomorrow morning.


The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch which includes Brooklyn starting later tonight and continuing into tomorrow:

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch beginning Tuesday, March 4, at midnight. The Watch is expected to stay in effect until Wednesday afternoon, March 5. Rainfall totals may reach 2.5 inches in New York City, with localized flooding possible, and minor coastal flooding likely at high tide on Wednesday morning.
- NYC OEM email alert

New Yorkers should exercise caution, as heavy rain may knock down trees and power lines, and may create hazardous driving conditions. People should avoid walking or driving through moving water, as six inches of fast-moving water can knock people off their feet; two feet will cause most vehicles to float.

Links

NYC Office of Emergency Management:

• Flash Flooding
  
• Flooding
  
• Coastal Storms
  

Snow!

This is why I don't cut everything to the ground in the fall. This is a non-heirloom grass in my front yard garden.


Update 09:00: My waking estimate of 3" was conservative. After shoveling my steps, walkway and 250 square feet of sidewalk, I think we already have 5 inches on the ground.

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More of the front yard:







And the backyard:



This is the Gardener's Nook in the corner. You can see the Winterberry in the container still has lots of berries on it.





This is the view from the second floor tree fort. This is a lot more open than in past years. Over the winter, our next-door neighbor had to take down their old maple in the middle of their backyard, and the apple tree which reached over the fence. Sad, but necessary.

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Woke up this morning to find everything covered with a couple inches of snow.

And it's still falling. I'll try to get some pictures.

The National Weather Service is calling for 1-3 inches for my area. Yet they also have a winter storm warning in effect predicting 5-7 inches. Local news services are estimating 5 inches total, which seems more likely. It looks like we already have 3 inches on the ground.

Related posts

My Flickr photo set of this morning's snow

Happy Imbolc! (Groundhog Day)

"Flatbush Fluffy", the resident mammoth marmot, shown above, did not see his shadow this morning. We had torrential rains all day yesterday and into the night. The sun has only just broken out this morning. So I guess we're having a short winter. My crocuses have been poking up for the past two weeks, ready to make a break for it.

Staten Island Chuck concurs.

Not that there's been much winter here this year. It's the first New York City January without snow in 75 years.

Meanwhile, other parts of the country were hammered with record snowfalls this winter. And right now China and other parts of the world are recovering from severe winter weather.

Heavy Snow in China, NASA Earth Observatory

Related posts

Happy Groundhog Day! (2007)

Another Warm Year

January - November 2007 statewide temperature rankings. Credit: NOAA

The year 2007 is on pace to become one of the 10 warmest years for the contiguous U.S. ... The year was marked by exceptional drought in the U.S. Southeast and the West, which helped fuel another extremely active wildfire season. The year also brought outbreaks of cold air, and killer heat waves and floods. Meanwhile, the global surface temperature for 2007 is expected to be fifth warmest.
- NOAA: 2007 a Top Ten Warm Year for U.S. and Globe

Preliminary data will be updated in early January to reflect the final three weeks of December and is not considered final until a full analysis is complete next spring.

Globally:

Including 2007, seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997. The global average surface temperature has risen between 0.6°C and 0.7°C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend.

Satellite Image of Northeast's First Snow of the Season

A string of storms brought the season’s first snow to the eastern United States from the mid-Atlantic states to New England during the first week of December 2007. By December 6, most of the clouds had cleared, providing the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite this view of the snow-covered landscape. The snow highlights the contours of the land. Waves and curves follow the gentle folds of the Appalachian Mountains through Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. The more rugged mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York wrinkle the surface of the land.
- First Snow in the US Northeast, NASA Earth Observatory

The snow also makes rivers and lakes more visible than they might otherwise be. The dark blue-green Finger Lakes of upstate New York pop out against the surrounding white land. The long narrow lakes formed when glaciers scoured, deepened, and eventually dammed stream valleys. The lakes point north and northwest to the shores of Lake Ontario, portions of which are visible beneath a bank of clouds in this image. The northern shore of Lake Erie similarly peaks through the clouds to the west. In the far north, particularly in Maine and Canada, lakes have already started to freeze. The ice is a smooth, bright white surface in contrast to the slightly darker land.

To the south, snow-covered Maryland surrounds the northern Chesapeake Bay, starkly outlining the ragged shoreline where rivers and streams enter the bay. The largest river flowing into the Chesapeake is the Susquehanna, which cuts southeast across the Appalachian Mountains of Pennsylvania.

Here's a closer view of the NYC area.

Related Posts

First Snow of the Season

Links

First Snow in the US Northeast, NASA Earth Observatory

First Snow, and Snowbirds, of the Season

Updated 12/6: Added Brian of Brooklyn, who has the most photos I've seen so far.
Updated throughout the day Monday, December 3, to add links to other blogs with photos of the first snow.

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Slate-Colored Junco, Junco hyemalis hyemalis, in my Flatbush backyard


We had our first snow of the season overnight. It was in the 20s all day, gradually warming, and it will be in the 30s tomorrow, so it will all be gone soon. I didn't get any pictures of it myself, but others did:

A Brooklyn Life
Bay Ridge Rover
BK11201
Brian of Brooklyn
BushwickBK
Ditmas Park Blog
Gowanus Lounge
Loopweaver
McBrooklyn
Only the Blog Knows Brooklyn
Pardon Me For Asking
Self-Absorbed Boomer
Sustainable Flatbush

I didn't get out of the house today. Too busy cleaning, getting ready for guests tomorrow evening. But I was keeping an eye on the bird feeders yesterday and today. The winter migrants are firmly established now: Juncoes, Chickadees, and a little crested one whose name escapes me at the moment. I was looking for nuthatches, my favorites, but I didn't see any this weekend.

American Goldfinch, Cardulis tristis, in winter plumage. I think this is a female. Thanks to Flickr pals megankhines and PhotoJeff for the id!